CFP Predictions, Week of November 17

What a crazy weekend of college football. This week we could see even more movement in the top 8. Here’s my prediction.

1. Oregon
Really tempted to put ‘Bama here but safe bet is Oregon moving up one spot. They are getting healthy at the right time as well. Pac=12 Championship game is looming.

Remaining games: Colorado, at Oregon State

2. Alabama
That defense looks like one of the best ever. The offense is another story. With the Iron Bowl and potentially the SEC Championship Game left, it really doesn’t matter where ‘Bama is ranked at this point. They just have to win.

Remaining games: Western Carolina, Auburn

3. Florida State
They look horrible and unfocused until the 3rd quarter. No one left on schedule to challenge them. Biggest date is Winston’s hearing.

Remaining games: Boston College, Florida

4. Mississippi State
This could be where things get crazy. I can’t see MSU falling down past Baylor, Ohio State, Was all ready to put TCU here or even Arizona State.

Remaining games: Vanderbilt, at Ole Miss

On Deck: The Next 4

There really isn’t a whole lot of separation in the next three teams.

Baylor
The end of the year game with KSU looms large. But without a championship game to play, I’m not sure they can sneak in the top 4.

Remaining games: at Texas Tech, Kansas State

Ohio State
They won this weekend but they are running out of impressive games to jump into the top 4. The rest of the Big 10 isn’t helping them either.

Remaining games: Indiana, Michigan

TCU
Like I said last week, TCU could not afford the kind of game they had at Kansas. After playing like that, the Texas game looks very dangerous for them.

Remaining games: @Texas, Iowa State

Ole Miss
There are many 2 loss teams that could sit here – Georgia, Michigan State, UCLA. With the loss of Treadwell, it’s tempting to let Ole Miss slide down the polls. But their defense is too stout.

Remaining games: @Arkansas, Mississippi State

We will see what the committee comes up with. Love to hear your thoughts in the comments.

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4 thoughts on “CFP Predictions, Week of November 17

  1. I think I agree with your assessment. I’m hoping the committee comes up with something close to this. I couldn’t agree with you more on Florida State. If they didn’t start the year #1, there is no way they would be this high. They don’t have a signature win against a quality opponent. The best comment I heard of the weekend . . . Someone said that TCU’s close call with Kansas will hurt them . . . and then the reply .. Florida State has had 5 of those 🙂 4 comebacks from 15 points down against sub-par teams. I’m just hoping the Gators can step up and get it done against them. I don’t have anything against FSU. I just don’t think they are anywhere near the best team in the country.

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    1. There just isn’t a dominant team this year at all. Alabama, MSU, and Oregon are all beatable on any given Saturday. FSU just hasn’t really played anybody. Some of that isn’t their fault – it’s just a bad year for ACC football.

      But most of the ill-will towards FSU is because of Winston and Jimbo’s completely stupid comment of “”Why is my reputation taking a hit? For backing a kid who has done nothing wrong?”

      Uhhhh… wow. Denial. Not just a river in Egypt.

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  2. Alabama, Oregon, and FSU control their own destiny. Win out and all three will be in. Lose and you’re gone. #4 gets a little dicey. I’m good with MSU being there right now. If they win out you can’t argue about them getting in. However, I don’t know if the committee will like a team from a conference that already has a team in and didn’t play in their championship game.

    The real mess comes if Alabama gets beat in the Iron Bowl. I don’t see it happening, but that is all Auburn has to play for anymore. If that happens then MSU is a lock if they win out.

    I can live with a lot of teams making it….I just hate that FSU is likely in. Shaky football team, really shaky reputation, really, really naïve coach. No I take that back, I don’t think he’s naïve, I think he will just sell his soul to win. That’s why I’d love to see Baylor sneak in. Class program, class school. Art Broyles doesn’t get enough respect.

    Who’s coaching Florida next year? I can tell you it won’t be a current coordinator. My money is on Stoops. He better leave Oklahoma before they ask him to leave. I wouldn’t hire him. If I was the AD, I’d load up the plane with as much money as would fit and head to Louisville. I know Petrino made a mistake, a BIG mistake, but he deserves another chance and he’s the best out there that’s available.

    Just my thoughts!

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    1. Would be fun to see Baylor get in the 4. But I think the strength of schedule and ‘body of work’ will end up mattering more to the committee than conference championships. You can thank the ACC and Big 10 for that one.

      Like you said – if everyone holds chalk, the big argument is going to be that #4 spot. The good news I guess is that IF FSU somehow ends up dropping one of these last two games or the ACC championship – they would drop like a rock.

      New Florida coach – that probably needs to be it’s own post. I think Texas A&M, TCU, or even Baylor would be wise to give Muschamp a call. He may be a horrific head coach but I bet he can still coach the D.

      I’ll throw down a longer post on Florida coach later this week.

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